Newly discovered asteroid with 100x Hiroshima bomb power may hit Earth in 2032—what are the odds of its impact?

 


In December 2024, astronomers discovered an asteroid named 2024 YR4, estimated to be approximately 60 meters (196 feet) in diameter. Current assessments indicate that this asteroid has a 1 in 43 chance (approximately 2.3%) of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.


If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, the energy released would be substantial, potentially equivalent to 100 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Such an impact could devastate a metropolitan area, causing significant destruction and loss of life.
Newly discovered asteroid with 100x Hiroshima bomb power may hit Earth in 2032—what are the odds of its impact? related Description 350 words

In December 2024, astronomers discovered an asteroid named 2024 YR4, estimated to be approximately 60 meters (196 feet) in diameter. Current assessments indicate that this asteroid has a 1 in 43 chance (approximately 2.3%) of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.


If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, the energy released would be substantial, potentially equivalent to 100 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Such an impact could devastate a metropolitan area, causing significant destruction and loss of life.

The asteroid's potential impact has prompted international monitoring. The United Nations has activated its planetary security protocol, and organizations like NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are closely tracking 2024 YR4's trajectory. As of now, it's considered premature to implement specific deflection strategies, but continuous monitoring is underway.

Historically, initial impact probabilities for newly discovered asteroids often decrease as more data becomes available. For instance, asteroid 99942 Apophis was initially thought to have a significant chance of impacting Earth in 2029, but further observations ruled out this possibility.

In summary, while 2024 YR4 currently presents a 2.3% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, ongoing observations are expected to refine this probability. The global scientific community is actively monitoring the situation and is prepared to develop and implement deflection strategies if necessary.

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